I think the Obama campaign is starting to implode. I just saw a poll that says McCain-Palin is up 54% to 44% nationally over Obama-Biden. If that poll is reliable at all, that’s a huge shift from a couple of weeks ago when Obama had a 6 to 8 point lead.

And now Obama is starting to say some dumb stuff. Speaking to a crowd in Pennsylvania, Obama said this about “taking people’s guns away”: “Even if I want to take them away, I don’t have the votes in Congress This can’t be the reason not to vote for me. Can everyone hear me in the back? I see a couple of sportsmen back there. I’m not going to take away your guns.”

Number one: Why even say “Even if I want to take them away . . .”? On first read, that sounds like he does want to take them away: “Even if I do want to take them away . . .” And that sound bite will be pulled out and used by the right for the next eight weeks, I am sure.

Number two: The above sounds like the words of someone on the defensive and someone who is no longer supremely confident in his own ability to win: “That can’t be the reason not to vote for me.” It almost sounds pleading in tone. Either that or he is implying that the real reason they’re not voting for him is because he’s black and they’re racists. And neither interpretation is favorable to Obama because the McCain campaign has been extremely careful not to inject race into the picture – officially at least – and these type of comments give McCain yet another option of accusing Obama of “playing the race card.”

Finally, Obama slipped up this weekend in an interview and said “my Muslim faith,” which the interviewer quickly corrected to “. . . your Christian faith,” and Obama agreed. I don’t care one way or the other whether Obama is a Muslim or Christian or Buddhist or whatever. But a lot of people do care. A lot of people think he is a Muslim by birth, and that his Christianity is only political cover. And it doesn’t help that the “Christian” church he was a member of for 20 years or whatever has a minister who has consistently damned America, etc. And those people will pounce on this as some reflection into Obama’s subconscious and will use it as “proof” that he really is a Muslim.

I realize that candidates say millions of words and this was probably just a slip of the tongue, etc. But that’s about the dumbest thing I think he could have possibly said. It just gives his opponents – and the most uneducated and opinionated of his opponents, to boot – real leverage against him. If the Obama campaign wants to pounce on statements McCain makes about his houses or about middle class American being those who have less than $5 million, Obama needs to stop saying that questions about abortion are “above his pay grade” and referring to his “Muslim faith.”

I think McCain-Palin have the edge and the momentum with eight weeks to go. Barring some new scandal involving Palin, I expect we will see McCain elected president – as surprising as that may be. If that happens, I think it will be primarily attributed to Obama’s selection of Joe Biden as VP instead of Hillary Clinton (although win or lose I am eternally grateful to Obama for making that decision), and to McCain’s selection of Palin as VP as an obvious game-changer. Again, since Palin apparently wasn’t thoroughly vetted there is no telling what else may emerge about her over the next eight weeks – but barring that, I think McCain may end up winning this thing after all.

Let the gnashing of teeth, rending of garments, wearing of hairshirts, and applying for Canadian live/work visas commence.